Charlotteans don't think much of Gov. Perdue

The gist of PPP's latest poll is that voters in Charlotte don't think Gov. Bev Perdue has paid them enough attention. Here's Tom Jensen's latest:

Bev Perdue opened an office in Charlotte and has made a point of visiting the city, but voters there still don't think she's been attentive to them since taking office.

58% of voters feel she's been inattentive to the city's needs so far, while just 25% think she has been. It's no surprise that 77% of Republicans and 63% of independents feel that way but even among Democrats 42% think she should be doing more for Charlotte while only 37% feel like she's done a good job so far on that front.

Perdue's overall rating with Charlotte voters, at 32% approval and 52% disapproval, is actually better than her statewide numbers. That may not be saying much though given what a Democratic city it is. 48% of Democrats, 28% of independents, and 11% of Republicans give her positive marks.

Perdue has a long way to go if she hopes to replicate her surprise victory in the city last year in 2012.

Much more popular with Charlotteans is Barack Obama, who has a 52% approval rating with 42% disapproving of his job performance in the city. 84% of Democrats, 48% of independents, and 9% of Republicans give him good reviews.

Obama's basically been pursuing a swing state strategy in the places he's visited since taking office, so who knows, maybe we'll see him in Charlotte for Anthony Foxx sometime during early voting. Given that his approval runs 17 points ahead of Foxx's vote share with independents, a visit from him could prove to be decisive in what's shaping up as a very close race.

See http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/08/perdue-struggling-in-charlotte.html

Charlotte mayor's race: 'close right to the end'

Public Policy Polling, which does a lot of work for Democratic candidates, says the race for Charlotte mayor is a virtual dead heat and will remain close right up until the end. Republican John Lassiter has a razor thin lead of 44-43 over Democrat Anthony Fox, says PPP analyst Tom Jensen.

Here's his analysis:

The race to be the next mayor of Charlotte is a statistical dead heat, with Republican John Lassiter leading Democrat Anthony Foxx 44-43 in the contest to replace Pat McCrory.

Both candidates are pretty popular with the city's electorate. 53% have a favorable opinion of Lassiter, with only 22% viewing him negatively and 48% have a positive one of Foxx with 22% holding an unfavorable opinion of him as well. It's unusual in the increasingly polarized world of partisan politics to see both candidates in a race sporting a better than 2:1 positive favorability ratio.

There are two key groups of voters who may well decide this race: independents and the Democratic voters whose crossover support of Pat McCrory has allowed the Republican to remain mayor of the Democratic city for over a decade. Lassiter has a 47-31 lead with independents, but Foxx has the 59-30 advantage with Democrats who approve of McCrory's job performance, indicating that he will do a better job of locking up his party's vote than recent Democratic nominees have.

Voters send conflicting messages about the direction of the city. On one hand McCrory has an excellent 57% approval rating, something that should aid Lassiter, who likely would be an extension of the current administration. On the other hand 59% of voters say that it's time for change in how the city is led with only 34% saying they're happy with how things are going currently, a sentiment that Foxx's campaign should be able to successfully tap into.

So far in the campaign Lassiter has put a heavy emphasis on his experience, while Foxx has been more focused on his vision for the city. By a 60-28 margin voters say that they are more concerned about a candidate's vision when deciding who to vote for than his experience.

Here are two things each candidate needs to focus on to win:

Anthony Foxx

-One very good piece of news for Foxx is that black voters appear to be motivated to come out this fall- we expect them to make up at least 30% of the electorate. Right now Foxx has a 70-17 lead with them. If he can push that up closer to Obama levels- 90% or more- he's going to be very difficult to beat.

-Although he's certainly doing a better job than most Democratic candidates for mayor have done lately of locking up the white Democratic vote, he's still losing 25% of it to Lassiter at this point. Getting his party more unified around him would go a long way.

John Lassiter

-Right now he's only getting 62% of the vote from people who approve of Pat McCrory's job performance. If he can do more to convince those folks happy with the current leadership that he'll provide continuity his numbers will improve.

-Do a better job of earning support from voters who have a favorable opinion of both him and Foxx- right now the Democrat has a 57-36 lead with their mutual admirers but conceivably those are folks who could go either way- Lassiter needs to get more of them to go his way.
This race looks like it will probably be close right to the end.

Hagan - and Helms - support Sotomayor

North Carolina's Democratic senator Kay Hagan voted for Judge Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation today to the U.S. Supreme Court. But in an acknowledgment of conservative leanings in the state, Hagan's statement pointed out an interesting past Sotomayor supporter - former Republican Sen. Jesse Helms, who died last year. Said Hagan:

“With 17 years on the federal bench, Judge Sonia Sotomayor has more federal judicial experience than any Supreme Court nominee in 100 years. Judge Sotomayor said in her confirmation hearing that her underlying judicial philosophy is ‘fidelity to the law.’ She has an established record as a moderate judge whose decisions show a respect for precedent.

“In 1998, Sen. Jesse Helms voted for her confirmation to serve on the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. Based on her record and testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee, I was proud to support her historic confirmation to the United States Supreme Court.”

No big-name Democrat wants a U.S. Senate seat?

Are top-tier Democrats afraid to take on Richard Burr? Burr (left), a first-term Republican U.S. senator from Winston-Salem, is looking stronger each time a notable Democrat announces he won't run.

The latest was Mike McIntyre, a congressman from North Carolina's 7th district. He said this week that he feels he can be more effective by running for an eighth term in the House.

So add McIntyre to a list of prominent Democrats who are taking a pass. That list includes Attorney General Roy Cooper and U.S. Reps. Heath Shulter, Brad Miller and Bob Etheridge. State Sen. Malcolm Graham of Charlotte has also said he won't run.

This fact is being touted by the national Republican Party, which is probably confused but relieved. Polls suggest that Burr could be vulnerable to a well-funded challenge from a prominent Democrat next year.

You may think there's plenty of time for someone to step up, given that the election is more than 15 months away. But Burr has a very respectable $2.5 million in the bank. So unless a Democrat plans to spend millions of his own money, no time like the present to get moving.

On the other hand, was anyone giving Kay Hagan a shot in July 2007?

- Posted by Taylor Batten

Lassiter is winning big! No wait! Foxx is!

Isn't it fun how you can make numbers say whatever you want?

Republican John Lassiter's campaign sent out an e-mail today touting Lassiter's commanding lead over Democrat Anthony Foxx in the race for Charlotte mayor. Lassiter is leading Foxx 42-26, with 32 percent undecided, according to a poll from Cornerstone Solutions.

But wait! Six hours later, Foxx's campaign sent out an e-mail saying that Foxx is actually leading, 48-34, with 17 percent undecided, in a poll from Anzalone Liszt Research.

No, we're not sure what to make of that either. One thing that stood out to us: Blacks made up just 13.8 percent of respondents in Cornerstone's poll. We figure they are likely to make up a much larger number than that on Election Day. And one surprising finding: even though the Cornerstone poll had Lassiter comfortably ahead, it showed that Foxx had more support than Lassiter among voters for whom the economy was the most important issue.

On the other hand, the Anzalone poll showed the race pretty much dead even until the pollsters gave information about both candidates. That's when Foxx pulled ahead in that poll. So the pollsters' wording could be crucial there.

In any case, we have a hunch: poll numbers in July might not stand up all the way to November.
-- Posted by Taylor Batten

Higher taxes for everyone!

So after months of negotiations, state Democratic lawmakers today agreed on a plan: raise taxes by nearly $1 billion to avoid further spending cuts in the state budget -- and do it in a way that hits everyone.
The plan raises taxes by $982 million by hiking the sales tax rate by a penny, adding a 2 percent "surcharge" to state income tax bills and imposing small tax increases on cigarettes (10 cents a pack) and alcohol (about a nickel a six-pack, and 5 percent on liquor).
The plan is badly flawed. It hikes taxes on everyone, including hitting the poor disproportionately, while doing little to address the problems that got us into this situation in the first place. It relies on the same taxes that, this crisis shows, fluctuate too wildly to be a reliable revenue structure for a growing state.
Lawmakers should have cut the income tax rate, not put a surcharge on it. They should have cut the sales tax rate, not increase it. They should have closed loopholes on business taxes. And they should have applied the lower sales tax to more services.
Senate Democrats have been pushing to overhaul the tax system. But it appears the House put doing the right thing on the back burner and just relied on the higher taxes they could get passed.
Which means, we'll be in a budget mess even after this passes. And if you think some of these increases will be "temporary," you haven't been paying attention.
- Posted by Taylor Batten

Charlotte history unfolds!

The history of Charlotte development in 9 minutes, "Metropolis" is a fun, stop-motion animation video by artist Rob Carter. Click the link to view:

http://www.robcarter.net/Vid_Metropolis.html

As described on his web site:

"Metropolis is a quirky and very abridged narrative history of the city of Charlotte, North Carolina. It uses stop motion video animation to physically manipulate aerial still images of the city (both real and fictional), creating a landscape in constant motion. Starting around 1755 on a Native American trading path, the viewer is presented with the building of the first house in Charlotte. From there we see the town develop through the historic dismissal of the English, to the prosperity made by the discovery of gold and the subsequent roots of the building of the multitude of churches that the city is famous for. Now the landscape turns white with cotton, and the modern city is ‘born’, with a more detailed re-creation of the economic boom and surprising architectural transformation that has occurred in the past 20 years.

"Charlotte is one of the fastest growing cities in the country, primarily due to the continuing influx of the banking community, resulting in an unusually fast architectural and population expansion that shows no sign of faltering despite the current economic climate. However, this new downtown Metropolis is therefore subject to the whim of the market and the interest of the giant corporations that choose to do business there. Made entirely from images printed on paper, the animation literally represents this sped up urban planners dream, but suggests the frailty of that dream, however concrete it may feel on the ground today. Ultimately the video continues the city development into an imagined hubristic future, of more and more skyscrapers and sports arenas and into a bleak environmental future. It is an extreme representation of the already serious water shortages that face many expanding American cities today; but this is less a warning, as much as a statement of our paper thin significance no matter how many monuments of steel, glass and concrete we build."

Graham to Sotomayor: Elections matter

Leave it to South Carolina's senior senator, Lindsey Graham, to call it like he sees it. During his opening statement at Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation hearing this morning, Graham said what everyone was thinking but wouldn't say:

"Unless you have a complete meltdown, you're going to get confirmed."

Graham, a second-term senator from Oconee County, left open the possibility that he would vote to forward her confirmation to the full Senate, the first Republican at the hearing to suggest that. If he does, he could well be the only Republican on the committee to do so.

Graham made clear that he disagreed with Sotomayor on many issues, and he was troubled by her "wise Latina" remark. But he wisely said that was not a reason to vote against her confirmation. President Obama won the November election, Graham pointed out, and "that ought to matter. It does to me."

In other words, Supreme Court nominations have become too politicized. Senators should be judging her intellect, her honesty and her credentials, not whether they agree with her on every issue. Just as most Democrats did when they voted for George W. Bush's nominee for chief justice, John Roberts (78 yes votes).

- Posted by Taylor Batten

One year, or 50, to help Mecklenburg's needy?

It's only talk, but Willie Ratchford takes it as a good sign.

Mecklenburg County commissioners this afternoon launched the beginnings of a conversation about the cliff Mecklenburg's nonprofits face.

A panel discussion among nonprofit leaders and others last week drew more than 200 people. Carol Hardison of Crisis Assistance Ministry suggested that the community needed a human services strategic plan to tackle the growing woes of the poor.

Today, commissioners discussed what a process would look like to devise such a plan. They agreed to try to convene a meeting next month of all of Mecklenburg's elected bodies to get community-wide buy-in. That's smart, since the problem goes way beyond county government.
Commissioner Harold Cogdell raised eyebrows when, talking about how complicated the problem is, he referred to striving to have a better community "in 30 years, or 50 years."

Commissioner Vilma Leake didn't like that. "Someone said 50 years. I hurt when I hear that," she said. "We need to act right away."

(Cogdell later emphasized that he shares the desire to get something done immediately.)

Commissioner Dan Murrey said the process needs to involve businesses, foundations, hospitals, nonprofits and others, along with government. He said it would take at least a year to devise a comprehensive strategic plan.

Ratchford, executive director of the city's Community Relations Committee who helped organize last week's forum, said he had hoped the forum would spark a conversation about the problem.

"It's starting to happen," he said.

- Posted by Taylor Batten