Monday, July 27, 2009

Lassiter is winning big! No wait! Foxx is!

Isn't it fun how you can make numbers say whatever you want?

Republican John Lassiter's campaign sent out an e-mail today touting Lassiter's commanding lead over Democrat Anthony Foxx in the race for Charlotte mayor. Lassiter is leading Foxx 42-26, with 32 percent undecided, according to a poll from Cornerstone Solutions.

But wait! Six hours later, Foxx's campaign sent out an e-mail saying that Foxx is actually leading, 48-34, with 17 percent undecided, in a poll from Anzalone Liszt Research.

No, we're not sure what to make of that either. One thing that stood out to us: Blacks made up just 13.8 percent of respondents in Cornerstone's poll. We figure they are likely to make up a much larger number than that on Election Day. And one surprising finding: even though the Cornerstone poll had Lassiter comfortably ahead, it showed that Foxx had more support than Lassiter among voters for whom the economy was the most important issue.

On the other hand, the Anzalone poll showed the race pretty much dead even until the pollsters gave information about both candidates. That's when Foxx pulled ahead in that poll. So the pollsters' wording could be crucial there.

In any case, we have a hunch: poll numbers in July might not stand up all the way to November.
-- Posted by Taylor Batten

2 comments:

Kion said...

Taylor,

I'm in total agreeance with you. It is way too early to predict the voter turnout for November's election. Instead of focusing on polling, both candidates should be reaching out to as many citizens as possible.

crystalsbass said...

"One thing that stood out to us: Blacks made up just 13.8 percent of respondents in Cornerstone's poll. We figure they are likely to make up a much larger number than that on Election Day."

And you simply ASSUME that they will all vote for the black guy? Isn't that racist and demeaning to anyone's intelligence, that they would prefer someone simply because of the color of their skin?