A new poll from the conservative Civitas Institute shows U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican, leading Democrat Elaine Marshall 44 percent to 37 percent. That's within the margin of error, barely, of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Fifteen percent of the 600 registered voters polled July 19-21 were undecided. It was conducted by Republican pollster Tel Opinion Research.
It's the third recent poll that suggests Marshall may be in striking distance. Burr led Marshall by just five points in a poll by Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling earlier this month, and he trailed by two points in a poll commissioned by the Marshall campaign.
Polls in July don't mean much, and they suggest that Burr is probably slightly ahead. But as a 16-year member of Congress running against a low-profile challenger in a year shaping up to be Republican friendly, Burr should perhaps be concerned that this race is at all competitive.
UPDATE: An alert reader shares with us a Rasmussen poll we had not seen that shows a more comfortable lead for Burr. Burr has a 52-37 lead in that poll of 500 likely voters. It was conducted July 6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
-- Posted by The Observer editorial board
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Burr-Marshall Senate race looks competitive
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7 comments:
The race only looks competitive through the liberal prism of mis-representations. A seven point lead is within the + or - 4% margin of error? Only if you arbitrarily assume it is Marshall +4 and Burr -4. If you reverse this optimistic assumption you get a 15% lead for Burr.
cnewman,
It's not liberal or conservative. It's statistics. Ask any statistician in America if a 7-point lead is within a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Burr should lose. He has been nothing but an obstructionist in the dysfuctional senate.
So has the Observer Editorial Board once again decided that the Libertarian candidate doesn't exist?
John, they didn't say the Libertarian doesn't exist. They imply the Libertarian is not competitive which is valid. A vote for the Libertarian is a vote for Marshall.
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