Monday, November 1, 2010

Bill James is sly, or confused

Mecklenburg County commissioner Bill James is confused. Or he's having some fun. James, a Republican, tallied up the early voting statistics for Mecklenburg County and concluded that "the Ds are winning the turnout war." Shoddy work for an accountant like James, unless he knew what he was doing all along.
First, James' stats (which differ slightly from what we find on the Board of Elections website):
31,627 Democrats have voted.
26,363 Republicans have voted.
12,894 unaffiliateds have voted.
77 Libertarians have voted.
Total votes cast in Mecklenburg in early voting: 70,961.
That's 5,264 more Dems than Repubs, so the Democrats are winning in turnout, James says.
Ah, but in fact those numbers show the exact opposite: that Republicans are winning the turnout war, at least in Mecklenburg. Here's why:
Republicans are 28.5 percent of registered voters in Mecklenburg. But they are 37.2 percent of early voters.
Democrats are 45.7 percent of registered voters, but are 44.6 percent of early voters. (Unaffiliated voters are staying home: they are 25.7 percent of registered voters but only 18.2 percent of early voters.)
So in fact, Republicans are doing better than Democrats at getting their folks out.
We shared all this with James and speculated that he knew this all along. His response: "Yes, you got me."
P.S.: James also says that in early voting the best estimate is that 20 percent of Democrats are voting Republican and 70 percent of unaffiliateds are. If you assume Republicans are voting at least 95 percent Republican, here's what those numbers suggest: That Republicans are winning so far, 57-43.

-- Posted by The Observer editorial board


wiley said...

All of this is moot since we will know the exact outcome tomorrow night.

Until then, who cares.

ThaQueenCity said...

First off anyone who listens to James is a fool! Yes, he has a point in all his rhetoric somewhere but by the time you get to it you are ready to slap him! And THAT is coming from someone who voted mostly republican locally!

Thank God he is one of a kind (locally I mean)....Thompson, Pendergraph and Ramirez have diplomacy and know how to make their points without offending the world!

With that being said I am an Independent and already voted for the 3 mentioned above ......

Special K said...

So according to the Observer Editoral Board, 31,627 is less than 26,363. Who's confused? You wouldn't be trying to make Bill James look bad, would you?

Sam said...

The Charlotte Observer editorial board officially turns my stomach. What a bunch of wacko Libs. Going bankrupt fast - losing advertisers fast - losing subscribers fast.

Charlotte Observer - "We Luv Libs"

FlyGracefully said...

@Sam: to me this is a ploy to entice the Rs to go and vote tomorrow.

Cedar Posts said...

My prediction is the Bill James will win re-election regardless of voter turn out.

and by a landslide!

Larry said...

Gosh Bill The Observer just loves to analyze every little thing you say and do and report every little utterance.

The Democrats never get this type of coverage.

They only get notice from the Observer to show how angry they are at how the Republicans are treating the people or how wonderful a new tax and spend program they have is going to be or is for the citizens.

When are you going to be as fair to the Democrats as you are to Bill James?