Newt's big endorsement: How big is it?

Good morning, and welcome to O-pinion, the Observer's spot for perspective and discussion. I'm Peter St. Onge, associate editor of the O's editorial board, and I'll be hosting today.

I'm also a New Hampshire native, so I have a different perspective than many about the political news of note this weekend. Newt Gingrich nabbed the endorsement Sunday of New Hampshire's biggest and most politically influential newspaper, the Manchester Union-Leader.

This is big for Gingrich, as you'll hear today, for all the obvious reasons: The endorsement affirms Gingrich as the party's conservative choice heading into the primaries. It's one of few endorsements he's received thus far from establishment sources, and it comes in a critical early primary state in which Romney has comfortably led most polls.

That primary is January 10, and given New Hampshire's reputation for embracing surprising candidates, we could be looking at the kind of upset that gives Gingrich significant momentum heading into conservative South Carolina soon after.

Except for this: New Hampshire's reputation is undeserved. The notion that N.H. is a maverick state that follows the lead of its maverick conservative newspaper is largely based on one primary. In 1996, the state gave its primary nod to conservative candidate Pat Buchanan, endorsed by the Union-Leader instead of eventual nominee Bob Dole.

In other years, despite prodding from the Union-Leader, N.H. has been stubbornly mainstream. We voted for Nixon, Ford, Reagan and George W. Bush. We've voted for decidedly moderate candidates like George H.W. Bush and John McCain, the 2000 version. In short, we vote for frontrunners.

This year, that frontrunner also happens to be a moderate who was governor of a neighboring state, Massachusetts. The border is critical, because most of New Hampshire's population lives in the southern half of the state - less than an hour from Boston. Much of that population emigrated from Massachusetts, and most get their news from Boston TV, radio and media. They are unafraid to vote for moderates, and they remember Romney's successful stint as governor.

All of which wasn't enough to help Romney beat McCain in New Hampshire's 2008 primary, in which Romney finished a strong second. The Union-Leader endorsed McCain in that race, as well, but that synergy between N.H. residents and the state's biggest newspaper was the exception, not the rule. Romney is still the man to beat in the state that once called him neighbor.

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