Wednesday, June 13, 2012

N.C. poll brings more bad news for Obama

A bad stretch of news just got a little worse for Barack Obama. A poll in one of 2012's critical battleground states, North Carolina, has Mitt Romney pulling ahead for the first time since October.

Raleigh's Public Policy Polling most recent survey, released Tuesday, has Romney leading Obama 48-46. That's a gain of seven points for the Republican since April, when the president led, 49-44.

Romney has made significant gains in his favorability ratings, while Obama has stayed flat. Another big factor, says PPP's Tom Jensen:

"Romney's erased what was a 51-38 lead for Obama with independents and taken a 42-41 lead with that voting group. He's also increased his share of the Democratic vote from 15% to 20%, suggesting he's convincing some more conservative voters within the party to cross over."
Your caveats: It's only June, the lead is a statistical dead heat, and PPP's poll also shows Obama with only 76 percent of the black vote. (Exit polls showed him with more than 90 percent of that vote in 2008.) Says Jensen of the latest poll: "That seems like an unrealistically low share of African American voters for Obama."

Still, this poll and others - along with an economy that many expect to struggle through summer and fall - has Republicans feeling increasingly confident about November.

PPP, which largely does polling for Democratic clients, released another survey today showing that not much has changed in the N.C. governor's race. Republican Pat McCrory leads Democrat Walter Dalton 47-40, about the same as his 46-40 lead in May's PPP poll.

Why McCrory should like this poll: He continues to do well with independents, leading Dalton 47-31. Also, he's doing much better with voters in his party (83 percent) than Dalton is in his (68 percent.)

Peter St. Onge

15 comments:

kantstanzya said...

We know the Observer's political leaning and this has been a bad a few few weeks for them and Obama. But its been a bad 3 1/2 years for the Country!

The headline, instead of "Bad News for Obama", should read "GOOD NEWS FOR AMERICA"!

Skippy said...

A "little worse"? You do know PPP is a liberal polling center? Ah, why bother. 20% of blacks in Charlotte support McCrory, Romney is now up in Wisconsin after the recall exit polls showed The Chosen One up by 9, his policies are a disaster, he takes no blame while taking for credit for just about anything..

Just keep on believing those polls libs, just keep on believing.

John said...

{PPP's poll also shows Obama with only 76 percent of the black vote. (Exit polls showed him with more than 90 percent of that vote in 2008.) Says Jensen of the latest poll: "That seems like an unrealistically low share of African American voters for Obama."}

Unrealistic? Why? Black Americans are typically hit hardest in a bad economy and it has to be disappointing to them that having a black President hasn't helped their situation!

They turned out for Obama in droves in 2008 filled with hope, only to see more of the same once he was in office. Top that with the fact that blacks voted almost 2-1 against gay marriage only to hear Obama endorse it and the seeds of disaffection are sown.

I hardly expect many of those 26% of black voters to go for Romney, but they may certainly just stay home and that would have almost the same effect.

John said...

{PPP's poll also shows Obama with only 76 percent of the black vote. (Exit polls showed him with more than 90 percent of that vote in 2008.) Says Jensen of the latest poll: "That seems like an unrealistically low share of African American voters for Obama."}

Unrealistic? Why? Black Americans are typically hit hardest in a bad economy and it has to be disappointing to them that having a black President hasn't helped their situation!

They turned out for Obama in droves in 2008 filled with hope, only to see more of the same once he was in office. Top that with the fact that blacks voted almost 2-1 against gay marriage only to hear Obama endorse it and the seeds of disaffection are sown.

I hardly expect many of those 26% of black voters to go for Romney, but they may certainly just stay home and that would have almost the same effect.

f65ea758-33bd-11e0-9dc2-000bcdcb5194 said...

A Republican presidential candidate crowing about a 2 percent lead in North Carolina would have been unfathonable four years ago.

J said...

It doesn't matter what the candidates look like. The facts are that since 1/21/09, fewer people are working, the average net worth of Americans has decreased, the national debt has doubled and the business environment is worse. While one of the wars is finally over and the #1 terrorist is dead, that isn't nearly enough to offset the deterioration of the economy. Therefore, the incumbent should not be re-elected.

xnavy8185 said...

If people were to ask me if I am better off now then I was in January 2009. I would have to say no, because in 2009 I was working and now I am unemployed and looking for a job.

xnavy8185 said...

I lost my job through no fault of my own, because I was reduced in force from my job. I am having trouble getting another job. I have no criminal history and want to work.

PinkySprinkles said...

Oh goody...all those unemployed people out here just vote for Romney, I'm sure he'll figure something out to get you a job. You know, of course, he has no experience creating jobs (and don't refer to all the Staples jobs he didn't help create). You can pray that he pays all the "little" people any attention if he's elected...he has no past history of doing any such thing. The guy doesn't even know how to act "normal." It's really sad the Repubs have such a "bottom of the barrell" candidate this time around...he's even worse than Palin and the good Lord knows she was a huge catastrophy for that party.

I'm voting for my President again--he's pulled us from the cliff we were hanging off of when he took office. He has a job to finish and he can do so if we get rid of all the T(errorist)-party anarchists in House.

The good part is--Obama doesn't need NC to win re-election. The President won election 2 days before NC was finally declared a winner for him. Clinton was elected twice and never carried NC! So, all you haters in NC, it's ok, Obama doesn't need your state!

TexGirl said...

Sprinkles, you just keep living in your happy little bubble. Obama has been such a corrupt, incompetent president, he's going down. Boy won't you and your buddies be surprised!

BiBr said...

I am so ready for a Romney Presidency. Please bring it on...

Garth Vader said...

{PPP's poll also shows Obama with only 76 percent of the black vote. (Exit polls showed him with more than 90 percent of that vote in 2008.) Says Jensen of the latest poll: "That seems like an unrealistically low share of African American voters for Obama."}

But remember that only whites base their votes on race.

grizzy4884 said...

Remind us again what business experience community organizer Obama has?

Mark Caplan said...

Socialist Obama has been a disaster.

Corporate profits are at an all-time high. Corporate profit MARGINS are at an all-time high. CEO pay is at an all-time high, up another 5% over last year.

Income inequality is the highest in 100 years.

The stock market has gained over 100 percent in Obama's first term. The Bush Tax Cuts are still in effect, and Obama has added his own payroll tax cut.

Virtually unregulated fracking is running rampant across America, making natural gas highly affordable. Deep-water drilling is expanding in the Gulf of Mexico.

Total government employment (federal, state and local) has fallen steadily under the socialist's reign.

Catholic101 said...

Don't let the door hot you on the way out, Barry.