Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Romney camp on polls: They're wrong

About all those recent polls showing Mitt Romney slipping nationally and in battlegrounds? Don't trust them, the campaign says.

The Hill reports this morning that frustrated Republicans, including Romney officials, say that most of the polls are built on a faulty assumption - that Hispanics, blacks and young voters are going to turn out with the same enthusiasm as they did for Barack Obama in 2008.

Said Romney pollster Neil Newhouse: “I don’t think [the polls] reflect the composition of what 2012 is going to look like.”

Those who follow the polling business know that turnout estimates are the proverbial thumb on the scale for pollsters. Estimate a higher turnout of a Democrat-friendly demographic, and that's going to bump up the polling numbers of the Democrat running for office. To that end, one website, www.unskewedpolls.com, is re-weighting mainstream presidential polls with a nod to the demographic assumptions of Rasmussen Reports, which is widely regarded as a conservative pollster. The result: Romney leads in them all by 3 to 11 percentage points.


A new poll from the conservative Civitas Institute finds the ticket of Obama-Joe Biden leading the Romney-Paul Ryan ticket 49-45. It's the first poll to include the vice presidential candidates. It's also the first Civitas Poll since February that shows Obama leading, although the July poll was a virtual tie (Romney 49-48).

Of the 11 battleground states, North Carolina has been considered Romney's strongest, thanks to a persistently high unemployment rate and Republican-friendly military bloc in the east. A caveat: The poll of 600 registered voters was conducted Sept. 18 and 19 - in the immediate aftermath of Romney's 47 percent video. So we might be seeing a bit of a corresponding polling thud.

Interestingly, Romney didn't seem to lose independents in the wake of the furor, gaining five points among them (44 to 49 percent) from the July Civitas poll. But he did lose both registered Republicans (87 to 81 percent) and Democrats (24 to 16 percent). 

Peter St. Onge


Lateralus said...

Geez he is delusional? Did he expect a bump from his string of gaffes lately? Start living in reality and talk about what needs to change on your part in order to get back up, and maybe then people will start respecting you and taking you seriously. This is getting embarrassing

EuroCat said...

You say:

"...[F]rustrated Republicans, including Romney officials, say that most of the polls are built on a faulty assumption - that Hispanics, blacks and young voters are going to turn out..."

Well, that assumption may well be faulty, since the centerpiece of the Romney campaign in over a dozen states is to use new voter suppression laws and tactics to make sure that "Hispanics, blacks, and young voters" are disenfranchised and don't turn out.

No_clue777 said...

How about this....it doesn't matter which of these idiots find their way to the White House....by the end of 2016, this Nation will have $20 Trillion in debt. Now that should scare the crap out of any citizen.

faithplusnothing said...

The Observer is terrified this might be true!!!!

BiBr said...

And the CO is hoping like anything that the polls favor Obama. We know already - you are flaming liberals and can't help it!

Adolf said...

More proof that Romney is a bad joke.

zuzuspettles said...

I'm sorry but Romney scares me. He seems to constantly say the wrong things about foreign policy and his only economic grace is that he bought companies, sold off their assets and then bankrupted them. Gee, is that his plan for America?

Tanksleyd said...

Government = Business ?

Let's do a poll on that.

kantstanzya said...

The polls are not skewered because of the minority vote. The main reason is because they over sample Democrats and under sample Republicans and Independents.

There is no doubt the media is in the tank for Obama. And their polling is likewise. It is reminiscent of 1980 when the polls and newspapers (NYTimes and Wash Post) predicted a close election and Reagan beat Carter with 44 states. And even 1984 when Mondale only barely won one state..his home state of Minnesota.

Ben Bradlee, editor of the Washington Post, later admitted to Ed Rollins that his polling was an "in kind contribution" to the Democratic Party campaign.

How many stories have we heard about the economy lately? Or the debt or gas prices? Or unemployment or poverty? Very few except a few with a tortured positive spin.

With the weakest president and most disasterous policies in history Romney should be up by 20 points. But with the liberal media pulling out all the stops of distortion I guess we should just be happy we're not down by 20.