Wednesday, October 30, 2013

How badly is Edwin Peacock losing mayor's race?

Everyone has known Republican Edwin Peacock faces a tough climb to defy Charlotte's demographics and defeat Democrat Patrick Cannon for mayor. Now early voting statistics put some meat on that idea.

About 6,300 votes had been cast through Monday. About 60 percent of those have been cast by Democrats, about 22 percent by Republicans and about 18 percent by unaffiliated voters. About half the votes have been cast by black voters, though they make up only 37 percent of the electorate.

It's common for Democratic candidates to fare better in early voting and then see their support shrink a bit on Election Day:

  • In the 2009 mayoral race, Democrat Anthony Foxx won 55 percent of the early votes and 50 percent of Election Day votes.
  • In the 2011 mayoral race, Foxx won 76 percent of the early votes and 65 percent of Election Day votes.
  • In 2012, President Obama won 67 percent of the early votes in Mecklenburg County, but only 56 percent of Election Day votes.
We don't know whom this year's 6,300 voters supported. But if Peacock won every Republican vote and every unaffiliated vote (and no Democratic votes), he trails 60-40 right now. (More likely, he picked up some Democratic votes but also lost some unaffiliated votes.) If those trends continue for the five remaining days of early voting, history suggests that even if he does better on Election Day as expected, that's too big of a hole to dig out of.

-- Taylor Batten


10 comments:

Mark said...

Where are the White Republicans ?

Unknown said...

Mark, they moved to York, Iredell, and Union counties. You are starting to see what happened in many cities around the country such as Detroit, Birmingham, and Atlanta.
Charlotte, you had a good run. Will the last tax payer standing, please turn out the light...

burtshabby said...

When Cannon said 1)Why do you hate Charlotte? as a response to Peacock preferring a scaled down capital plan more reflective of the slow economy and high UE & 2) private investment follows public, I know Cannon is ready to spend more taxpayer money.

Donald Johnson said...

You are exactly right Unknown 8:15! I, like many other Charlotte natives, are dismayed at the track this city has taken. Many friends have already left the county, and we have plans to do it as well. Our next stop will most likely be Fort Mill with their excellent public schools. It was nice while it lasted, Charlotte!

Heather Lore said...

Unfortunately, this is more reflective of a lazy electorate. In any other "normal" environment, the moderate Peacock would actually beat the more spend hungry capitalist Cannon. This is a sign of the times in Charlotte that not even a moderate can win, but rather someone with a "D" at the end of their name.

La' Christian Porter said...

Ok so this mayor race is base on race some how I miss that memo. I do not think being a Republican mean a white voter or Democratic mean all voters that are not white. The problem is that the republican party in Charlotte can not compete plan and simple. I understand that we do not like looking at the facts but the truth is that republican party can compete and need to redefine it message and platform. I think Peacock is a strong candidate but his campaign is weak of giving his opinion of past events is following on deaf ears. His campaign should have started back in Sept 2012. We all knew Mayor Foxx was going to get a new job in DC. So the truth and my point is that the republican party can not compete and running always to another small town is not going to solve the problem.

misswhit said...

Kind of ironic that this editorial board has been predicting that the state of NC would lose residents and business because of the policies of the Republic legislature, while the city of Charlotte has been losing upper middle and middle class residents of all races to neighboring communities because of the policies of the democratically controlled city council and county commission.

Cornelia said...

I blame the CO's biased coverage of news events related to politics (story placement and skewed headlines) as much as anything for this county and city's changing demographics where those in higher income brackets are being exchanged for those requiring public assistance in too large a percentage of cases. A person considering moving here would only have to skim the local paper to get a pretty good idea of what would provide the better long-term value--North Mecklenburg or Iredell County, Piper Glen or Union County, Ballantyne or SC. The city manager himself said that Charlotte would require a yearly tax increase to sustain itself in the manner in which it had become accustomed. And all this talk about spending money to make money, I,e., the capital plan designed to spur development in west and east Charlotte begs the question: Exactly where are the current residents of those areas expected to move should all this spending radically increase the value of their residences? Renters will face increases they cannot possibly afford. Owners won't be able to pay the taxes, and if they can sell, where are they going to buy that they can afford? All will be uprooted, and many are too fragile to go through such a life-changing experience. The CO never asks these questions, let alone attempts to answer them. I have come to the conclusion that Charlotte, including the CO and most of its politicians, are literally OWNED by the developers and care zilch for the residents.

Shamash said...

Charlotte's changing demographics.

Love it, hate it.

Or just leave it behind.

One Discerner said...

Republican lose because their policies suck. And Peacock can place a lot of the blame for his loss on that fellow from Charlotte now wreaking havoc on the state's reputation from his residence in Raleigh.

And for the folks complaining about Charlotte and moving out while continuing to tear up the city's infrastructure without supporting it, a nice payroll tax would solve that problem.