Thursday, November 7, 2013

And Patrick Cannon's opponent in 2015 is...

In April, we released our inaugural Mayoral Power Rankings immediately after Anthony Foxx announced he would not seek a third term. It was a Top 10 list of candidates we thought had the best shot to be Charlotte's 56th mayor.

Now-mayor-elect Patrick Cannon debuted at No. 4 on the list. Republican Edwin Peacock, then No. 2, was ahead of him only because Peacock had declared he was in the race and Cannon hadn't. State Sen. Dan Clodfelter was No. 1 and state Rep. Becky Carney was No. 3. Neither ran. Cannon leaped over Peacock to No. 1 in our rankings as soon as he announced.

With Cannon being sworn in Dec. 2, is it too early for a little fun speculation about 2015? Never! If Cannon has a successful term, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't win reelection, perhaps several times. And if he stumbles?

He could face a primary challenge from a fellow Democrat. But who will represent Republicans on the November ballot?

Here are our inaugural Republican rankings for 2015. They come with the usual caveats: These are not endorsements. They will change over time. They are just an early peek at who might have a chance.

Who did we leave out? Who should be ranked higher or lower? Comment below.

The GOP rankings:

1. John Lassiter. After licking the wounds from his loss to Foxx in 2009, might he jump back in? We doubt it, but he'd have a decent shot if he did.

2. Pat Mumford. Former City Council member has been out of the limelight for a while, but he has the moderate stripes and likability that will be required.

3. Ruth Samuelson. She will have left her House seat and might have the itch to jump back in the fray. Legislative record could hurt her in blue Charlotte.

4. Edwin Peacock. Two years is a long time in politics. If Cannon trips in office, voters could want a rematch.

5. Kenny Smith. Maybe the new District 6 council member makes a splash in his first term. But he might be too conservative and too new to the scene to pull off a mayor's race in 2015.

Tied for a distant 6th: Andy Dulin, Rob Bryan, Scott Stone, Ric Killian and Dan Bishop. (This post originally mentioned Bob Rucho and Jim Pendergraph, but they doesn't live within the city limits.)

Want a wild card? School board member Eric Davis. We doubt he'll stay on the school board for life. But would he run as a Democrat, a Republican or an independent?

-- Taylor Batten


Garth Vader said...

Cannon doesn't have the "required likability".

Dan1984 said...

Underwhelming and/or hilarious. That is all.

David Godfrey said...

It makes absolutely no difference. Demographics is everything and demographics say no Republican will ever get elected mayor of Charlotte.

Cornelia said...

You really believe there will be enough people who can critically think left in Mecklenburg County by then to elect any one other than the leading democrat? I hope you are right, but I fear that you are dreaming. And I blame the CO for helping to hasten the inevitable. ..another Detroit, Birmingham or Memphis. May you reap the crop you have fertilized, because, when people think that they have no voice, most will be out of here. I realize Charlotte!s fathers, and likely the CO, thought they were tamping down racial unrest when they began this journey, as did the city fathers in Detroit, etc. But when affluent and later middle classes of ALL RACES felt that they were being asked to give far more than their fair share and fled, said city fathers and advocates saw they had ventured off the charted course, and they were lost. Do you feel a bit lost, Taylor? Reread the very, very sad history of Detroit. All were hurt as property values sank, the upper and middle class fled and the city shrank by 1/2. NONE was hurt more than the disadvantaged in whose name this political war had been waged. The victors? The politicians and their backers who waged the war, of course. Has anything changed since the Middle Ages? The wicked kings of lore had their paid town criers, too, as they commanded their subjects to war and enslaved their captives.
Happy nightmares, Taylor.

ScottCLT said...

Cornelia - didn't the Observer endorse Peacock? And Charlotte is not anything like Detroit. Companies are still moving into our great city, and the population is growing. Despite the mayoral election (I voted for Peacock too), Charlotte is nowhere even in the vicinity of Detroit's demise. In fact, I would say that it is nearly opposite.

copdsux said...

aCornelia must not read the business/real estate announcements for Charlotte.

Cornelia said...

Actually, I have a great deal of admiration for Mayor-elect Cannon. He overcame great odds to create a business, become successful and rise in politics,quite unlike the former mayor who is now in DC. I know of nothing outside of politics that the former mayor has accomplished and his political accomplishments appear to be the results of calling in the chits owed by persons of influence to his grandfather. Good luck to Cannon.iiu

Mary Newsom said...

Interesting speculation. But doesn't Sen. Rucho live in Matthews?

The Observer Editorial Board said...

This post was updated to remove Rucho and Pendergraph. Neither lives within Charlotte city limits. I suppose they could move...