Monday, March 24, 2014

Are you busy July 15th?

Are you busy July 15th? Control of the United States Senate could hinge on your answer.

Thom Tillis hopes there's nothing going on July 15th, and that North Carolinians are doing what many of them do in mid-July: going to the mountains or the beach, and generally not paying much attention to politics. Because if July 15th matters, Tillis might be in trouble.

But July 15th's importance depends on what happens May 6. That's when Republican primary voters will pick a nominee from among eight candidates running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. Or they'll try to pick a nominee.

If no candidate gets 40 percent of the vote -- and with eight candidates in the field, that's entirely possible -- the top two finishers face off in a July 15th runoff. This is where things get dicey for Tillis.

Tillis is the speaker of the N.C. House, and though he says he's no moderate, he is seen as the establishment candidate, backed by Karl Rove, and his runoff challenger would be coming at him from the right. Turnout on July 15 would likely be minuscule. That gives the Tea Party candidate a big boost, because the most ideologically pure voters are likely to dominate the electorate that day.

What might turnout look like? In 2010, North Carolina faced a nearly identical situation. Democrats held a runoff between Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham, with the winner taking on incumbent Richard Burr. The vote was June 22. Turnout? About 4 percent. Every runoff election sees single-digit turnout.

This one likely would too. And if 4 percent of Republicans are deciding between Thom Tillis and, say, the Rand Paul-backed Greg Brannon or the Mike Huckabee-backed Mark Harris, things could get very interesting.

The winner takes on incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan. National experts are watching North Carolina closely, because the race is considered a toss-up and could decide which party controls the Senate for the next two years. We bet we know who Hagan would rather face.

-- Taylor Batten

5 comments:

Wiley Coyote said...

Partisan much?...sheeesh.

A number of independent prognosticators are projecting Republicans will trounce New Hypocrisy Party Democrats, including the one guy who predicted Obama's two annointings.

My Mother always said "do you trust the devil you know or the devil you don't know?"

In this case, any devil will be better than the current one occupying the White House and the controlling the Senate.

Archiguy said...

WC - When you post "New Hypocrisy Party", which you do across this board every chance you get, everyone else just naturally assumes you're ranting about the GOP. After all, it's the Tea Party Republicans that claim to revere the U.S. Constitution while ignoring its Equal Protection Clause regarding gays.

It's mostly conservative Republicans who voted for the execrable Amendment One here in NC even though it was clearly unconstitutional with regard to that same U.S. Constitution and will eventually be struck down in the courts here as similar measures are in other states, at great legal cost to the taxpayers.

It's mostly elderly Republicans who whine and moan about that awful Obamacare and how "socialist" it is (it's not) while gleefully sucking up 3 times as many Medicare dollars as they've ever put in.

And it's conservative Republicans, for the most part, that claim the Second Amendment gives them the right to own as many lethal firearms as they want while ignoring the fact that the amendment was designed to provide for a "well-regulated militia", something no longer needed in a country with a large and permanent standing army.

I could go on. The GOP is nothing if not hypocritical on a whole host of issues. YOU are the partisan; this article was just reporting a news story about upcoming election dates. Grow up.

Buck Ofama said...

sounds like archibald needs a skull adjustment!

Garth Vader said...

Archi,

A "large and permanent standing army" is unconstitutional as well.

Article 1, Section 8, Clause 12:

"Congress shall have power... [t]o raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years."

How long as President Peace Prize a/k/a The DroneBomber-In-Chief, had that unconstitutional standing army in Afghanistan and 70 other places we don't belong?

Garth Vader said...

The Observer's cheerleading for Tillis is getting pretty sickening, especially when you consider that Brannon polls HIGHER against Hagan.