Monday, August 8, 2011

North Carolina in Obama's top 10?

The 2012 presidential election could come down to North Carolina and nine other swing states, says Washington Post political guru Chris Cillizza.
Cillizza cites new Gallup poll numbers that show President Barack Obama's approval ratings in each of the 50 states. Those numbers suggest that a small number of states will decide whether Obama gets a second term.
In North Carolina, which Obama won by the slightest of margins in 2008, voters are evenly split: 46 percent approve of him and 46 percent disapprove (on average, January through June of this year.)
That makes the Tar Heel state and its 15 electoral votes a coveted prize for both parties in 2012. Expect a lot of visits -- and TV ads -- from Obama and the Republican nominee over the next 15 months.
The other nine states on Cillizza's list: Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado.
In South Carolina, voters disapprove of Obama 47-43 percent in the Gallup numbers, and no one thinks the Palmetto State is up for grabs in November 2012.
Obama has his work cut out for him in North Carolina. It depends on who the Republican nominee is, but we wouldn't want to bet much that Obama repeats his 2008 performance here. If the economy doesn't start turning around by early fall of next year, no amount of advertising or get-out-the-vote efforts will save him in North Carolina.

-- Posted by Taylor Batten on behalf of the Observer editorial board