The presidential election could hinge on North Carolina and a handful of other states, a Raleigh-based polling firm says.
Public Policy Polling compiled all its 2011 polling in 15 major swing states to assess how the presidential race is shaping up. The numbers suggest the nation is headed for a very close race if it’s a Barack Obama-Mitt Romney contest.
Obama is doing worse than polls suggest, PPP says, because Romney will probably pick up most of the voters who currently favor a different Republican for the nomination. PPP spells out why Romney is probably about four points better in each state than current polls suggest. If so, there are about 10 battleground states, with the largest being North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
With Romney four points better than current polling, he wins 283-255, PPP says. If North Carolina or any other large state goes for Obama, it could swing the outcome to him.
Perhaps PPP’s most interesting finding about North Carolina? Obama’s level of support has held up better here than in any of 15 swing states. Obama won North Carolina by the slimmest of margins in 2008 and PPP’s 12 polls here in the past year average to Obama being up by two points here (or down two if you give Romney the four extra points). He has fallen by more than that in each of the other 14 major swing states.
In other words, get ready for a lot of attention from the presidential candidates this fall, and not just because the Democratic National Convention will be in Charlotte.
See PPP’s full analysis here.
-- Taylor Batten
Thursday, January 5, 2012
North Carolina to decide Obama-Romney winner?
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How did Romney win the nomination after one non-binding caucus that for the moment projects Paul, Romney and Santorum with 6 delegates each, Gingrich 4 and Perry 3? (www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/IA-R)
The true delegate selection won't take place until the Iowa GOP Conventions in mid-June. By then Perry and either Gingrich or Santorum will have dropped out.
Looks like Batten is following Bev Perdue's suggestion that we cancel elections.
I hope Romney gets the nomination because I will vote for him. If the canidates have not been decided it will be the second time in my voting life time that has happened.
O M G.........Obama Must Go....
Obama-Romney winner??? When did Romney secure the Republican nomination? Last I checked he simply won Iowa by 8 votes, and the difference between 1st and 3rd in that one, single state was by less than 3800 votes. What we do know about who will be the eventual next President of the United States, is never in the history of the United States has anyone who finished 4th or lower in Iowa has gone on to win the Presidency. Not once in 236 years. So if history is any indicator, this is now a 4 man race, that being Paul, Obama, Romney, and Santorum. Santorum has no national base nor does he have the current financing to mount a national campaign. He won Iowa by going to each of the 99 counties multiple times. That is an impossibility in a national race. We also know Romney received LESS votes in Iowa this year as he did in 2008. We also know that Paul more than doubled his voter turnout in Iowa, as compared to 2008. And we also know Iowa only hands out 25 delegates of the 1144 needed. This is going to be a long race. Who knows, North Carolina's primary MIGHT even be relevant this time?
We get to decide? In that case, Obama. Gosh, that was easy.
Now, what to have for dinner...
This is the type of sound bite BS headline that makes my blood boil. Polls don't decide elections, it's people who vote. And how does the PPP know the President is not doing as well or that Romney is doing better. Looks like I picked the wrong year to give up cussing!
It would be awesome if Obama can pull out another win in NC. The convention will help.
Maybe he will heap lots of goodies on the people of NC to win votes.
However he does it, I hope he wins.
Yeah the convention will help the 14,000,000 people that don't have a job and the 11% unemployed. Our debt is approaching $16 trillion, he is about ready to gut our military by 1/2 million troops even further diminishing our world status, we have records on food stamps, records on welfare, Solyandra, Fast and Furious, Class warfare rhetoric while accepting more money from Wall Street over all of the over Repub candidates combined, his EPA is wrecking havoc on employers and he has personally garunteed to cause the cost of ALL energy to skyrocket. Enjoy your $5 a gallon a gas next lemmings becuase it is coming.
Obama the Democrat party is toast next year. 8 states will have new Repub Gov's, the Senate will be lost as the Dem incumbants continue to jump off Obama's Titanic seeing the writing on the wall.
Heck ONLY 6 coward Dems didn't even show for a photo op when President Nitwit was last in NC, wonder why - they are up for re-election next year.
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