Welcome to O-Pinion. I'm Associate Editor Fannie Flono, your host today.
Opposition to Amendment One, the N.C. constitutional amendment on the May 8 ballot that would define marriage between a man and a woman as the only legal domestic union, got the nod from a narrow majority of the Mecklenburg County commissioners last night. But polling still shows the amendment getting approved in next week's vote by a 14 point margin of 55-41.
But opposition to this unnecessary and problematic proposal is rising. According to Public Policy Polling, "opposition is rising slightly with Republicans, independents, and African Americans, from 17 percent to 21 percent with the GOP, from 43 percent to 46 percent with independents, and from 39 percent to 43 percent with black voters. Democrats on the whole are opposed by a 54-42 spread. Reports of strong youth turnout in parts of the state could be a good sign for opponents; voters under the age of 30 oppose the amendment by 26 points, while the elder age brackets all support it by spreads of nine to 24 points—though that is down from margins of 16 to 32 points last week."
The pollsters said the "good news" for the amendment’s opponents is that more voters are now aware of the amendment’s consequences. If all voters were informed of those consequences, the amendment would fail by a 38-46 margin. The bad news is that a significant number of people still aren't well-versed on the ramifications - that it would ban both civil unions and gay marriage, and could affect benefits and protections of heterosexual unmarried couples and their children. Many don't know that state law already prohibits same-sex marriage so this move is unnecessary to just preserve that view. It simply writes discrimination into the state constitution. And even one of the state's top Republican leaders, Thom Tillis, acknowledges that view won't stand the test of time.
Voters still have time to get educated about this troubling proposal, and vote it down.
In other statewide PPP polling, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is surging in the North Carolina Democratic primary for Governor. He now leads with 36 percent fo 26 percent for Bob Etheridge, 5 percent for Bill Faison, 3 percent each for Gardenia Henley and Bruce Blackmon, and 2 percent for Gary Dunn.
Dalton has gone from 15 percent to 26 percent to 36 percent over the course of PPP's last three polls on the race. A poll by the Civitas Institute also found Dalton moving ahead. Pundits who had been predicting a runoff in this race now aren't too sure.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Posted by Fannie Flono at 11:23 AM