Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Obama, Romney tied in N.C., poll says

The debate over whether North Carolina is a presidential swing state ratchets up today with a new poll showing the race a dead heat.

Many pundits consider North Carolina to be clearly leaning toward Republican Mitt Romney. The New York Times lists it that way, not including the state among its nine "tossup" states. The Washington Post agrees.

We ran a piece by longtime N.C. political analyst John Davis on our editorial page Sunday in which he argues the state is Romney's to lose. "The lack of strong Democratic leaders in North Carolina gives the Obama camp no other choice but to begin to discreetly redirect the campaign's North Carolina resources to greener pastures," Davis said.

The folks at Public Policy Polling in Raleigh, though, have evidence that suggests they're all wrong. PPP released a new poll today that shows President Obama up 47-46 in North Carolina, a statistical tie. Obama and Romney have been within three points of each other in North Carolina in 21 of the 22 polls PPP has done since November 2010. "The state's about as much of a toss up as it could possibly be," said director Tom Jensen.

Obama won North Carolina by just 14,000 votes in 2008, becoming the first Democrat to win the state in 32 years.

We'd still be surprised if Obama wins North Carolina. Everything went just right for him in 2008 and he barely won here. At the same time, PPP has a solid predictive record, so the race in North Carolina may be tighter than it feels.

Details on the latest poll, which includes presidential polling in Virginia, can be found at PPP's website: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-holding-serve-in-the-upper-south.html

-- Posted by Taylor Batten


Wiley Coyote said...

Elon Poll:

6 in 10 in NC favor same-sex marriage, unions or partnerships ...

How did that work out for ya?

Garth Vader said...

It shouldn't surprise anyone that these two bozos are tied since they're two sides of the same statist coin. Bailouts, TARP, NDAA, PATRIOT, undeclared wars, indefinite detention, kill lists, warrantless wiretaps, healthcare mandates, deficits, debt ceiling hikes. NO DIFFERENCE between Obamney and Rombama. I'm voting for Gary Johnson.

One Discerner said...

The GOP would love for us to believe NC is a lost cause. They are more worried about NC now than they were in 2008 and with good reason. NC is still President Country!

Charlotte Exec said...

I have lived in NC my entire life. In the days of Jesse Helms and other Conservatives, no one would ever think that NC could EVER be fertile soil for a Democrat Presidential candidate. Is it just me, or should this be at the high order of the local and national news. The fact that somehow NC has become a "toss up" state now in two presidential elections!! Is anyone interested in how this could be? What have the democrats done to make a southern conservative-heavyweight, North Carolina, a toss up state yet AGAIN?? This is no longer safe ground for the Conservative right. That is so interesting!

Not_a_hypocrit said...

Polls..Polls..Polls. I am convinced that somebody has poll numbers that show 56% of the voters think that both Obama and Romney are both aliens from the planet Uranus. The only poll that matters is the one in November.

Laura said...

To Charlotte Exec, what is happening, not only in NC, but throughout the country is diversity. The majority of the population that vote Republican are usually white, but they do not make up the majority of the electorate anymore.