Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Charlotte's next mayor: The first poll

Here's a reminder of how much the political landscape in Charlotte has changed in the past 15 or so years: The Republican front runner in the race for mayor sent out a news release this morning boasting that ... he trails by two points.

The release came from Edwin Peacock, the only Republican to declare thus far. The poll he's citing, from Telopinion Research, says he is in a statistical tie with Democrat and Mayor Pro Tem Patrick Cannon, the only Democrat to declare. The numbers: Cannon 36, Peacock 34, Undecided 30.

Clearly, it's a wide open race - and it's early. So it might seem odd for Peacock to feel the need to declare his campaign's legitimacy. He also was the first to raise his hand for the job - just hours after Mayor Anthony Foxx said in April he wouldn't run again - so there may be a bit of overenthusiasm at work here. 

There's also this: Conventional wisdom and demographics tell us that it'll be difficult for a Republican to win in November. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-to-1 in Charlotte - 49.9 percent to 23.2 percent - and blacks make up 37.4 percent of registered voters, up from 25.7 percent in 2000.

In 2009, that shift helped Foxx become the first Democrat to win the mayor's race since Harvey Gantt left office in 1987. Foxx cruised with two-thirds of the vote in 2011. So Peacock's race update, unusual as it might be, is an acknowledgment: Any Republican has a hill to climb this time around.

Peter St. Onge

(h/t to the O's Gavin Off for 2000 voting figures.) 

6 comments:

Reggie Mantle said...

"Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-to-1 in Charlotte - 49.9 percent to 23.2 percent - and non-whites make up 47 percent of registered voters, up from 33 percent just 10 years ago."


We're on the Fast Track to becoming Detroit of the South!

BiBr said...

I think this article sums it up pretty well. The voters are Democrat and black - ergo a black democrat will win (and I thought color wasn't supposed to matter anymore!)

Unknown said...

It doesn't matter who runss or wins, he cannot set back community relations as mush as the current race baiter has done.
Comparing the 14th Amendment to the streetcar debate may be the most ignorant statement to come out of a politician's mouth...but then he was playing up to his base.

par said...

Totally agree with Reggie Mantle and BiBr.

E Jenkins said...

Charlotte is going down the tubes folks. The demographics are dramatically different than they were 20 years ago because all of the sane responsible tax abiding citizens have left the county and move to SC or Union/Cabarus county. Good luck Charlotte or Detroit of the South hahaha.

strmrtyr13 said...

Why won't Charlotte be the next Atlanta? Oh, you are painting the worst picture possible by calling it the next Detroit. Got it!

Good try, silly conservatives. Charlotte will be prosperous, as it has been, and can be more prosperous by embracing more diversity.

I'm part of the now newer minority in Charlotte, and look forward to the changes in Charlotte from the old views that still seem to linger here.