Friday, January 24, 2014

Hagan's chances put at 50-50

Sen. Kay Hagan's race in North Carolina could determine the fate of the entire U.S. Senate, one group of well-known pundits say in their updated predictions.

Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley at the University of Virginia have moved Hagan's race from "leans Democratic" to "toss-up." That makes it one of only three Senate toss-ups in the nation in their minds. There are 48 seats that are safe or lean Democratic and 49 that are safe or lean Republican, they say. So if those hold, whichever party wins two of the three toss-ups -- including North Carolina -- controls the Senate.

Sabato et al cite Hagan's approval ratings in the low 40s and say they shifted her race to a toss-up primarily because of fallout from the botched Obamacare rollout.

They add: "Republicans should continue to be worried about their potential nominee here, though: (Thom) Tillis leads the unpopular state legislature, and there are several other lesser-known Republicans in the race who could potentially cause them general election headaches."

There are seven states that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 that have Democratic senators up this year. North Carolina is the least Republican of those, but Hagan is clearly in for a fight. Her race will probably go down to the wire, and with it, control of the Senate.

For what it's worth, Sabato is the most pessimistic about Democrats holding on to the Senate. He puts the chances at 53 percent. Pundit Charlie Cook puts it at 69 percent and Stu Rothenberg puts it at 77 percent.

-- Taylor Batten


Andy S said...

Thom certainly won't get my Primary vote...and there won't be a need for me to change my vote in the General election, either....Dr. Greg Brannon in a landslide!

Garth Vader said...

I agree with Andy S, despite the Observer's determination to anoint Tillis and ignore Brannon.

It should tell you something that the Democrat-dominated Observer staff and management are pumping Tillis to run against their gal Kay. They know that Brannon polls better than Tillis against Hagan even though fewer people know who Brannon is at this point.

Wiley Coyote said...

If Alvin Greene could run in NC and win the GOP slot, I'd vote for Greene.

That's how bad Hagan is and her helping Obama flush this country down the toilet.