Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Analyzing which votes are still out

The Obama-McCain race is neck and neck in North Carolina and the governor's race is still very close.
So the key question is: whose votes haven't been counted yet?
Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling in Raleigh just revealed the 21 counties that have not yet reported, and who those counties voted for in 2004:

-Graham (Bush +36)
-Jackson (Bush +4)
-Buncombe (Tie)
-Polk (Bush +15)
-Cleveland (Bush +23)
-Avery (Bush +52)
-Caswell (Bush +3)
-Montgomery (Bush +14)
-Scotland (Kerry +11)
-Hoke (Kerry +5)
-Cumberland (Bush +3)
-Chatham (Tie)
-Wilson (Bush +8)
-Greene (Bush +18)
-Franklin (Bush +11)
-Vance (Kerry +12)
-Warren (Kerry +30)
-Halifax (Kerry +14)
-Beaufort (Bush +28)
-Washington (Kerry +9)
-Gates (Kerry +5)

At a glance, that looks good for McCain and McCrory, with so many Bush-friendly counties on the list. But Jensen points out the only sizable counties on the list are Cumberland and Buncombe, both of which could go for Obama and Perdue. Chatham and Wilson are mid-sized counties that will likely go for Obama for Perdue.

Jensen also points out there are still a lot of votes to count from other counties that have partially reported.