Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Will rain affect N.C. outcome?

The eastern half of North Carolina has been getting rained on steadily most of the day. How does that affect the outcome of races for president, governor and U.S. Senate?

That half of the state is a mix: the urban Raleigh area, the small cities and suburbs of Wilmington, Wilson and Rocky Mount, the rural white areas and rural black areas.

If it rained hard enough to keep people home, that could hurt Bev Perdue, who needs strong turnout in eastern North Carolina to beat Pat McCrory for governor.

At the same time, it is believed that Republicans were going to make up a bigger proportion of the electorate today than they did during early voting. Of the 2.5+ million people who voted early, 52 percent were registered Democrats. Black voters made up 26 percent of early voters, compared with 17 percent in 2004. So if the rain is keeping people away from the polls, it might be keeping more Republicans away than Democrats. That would be bad news for John McCain, Pat McCrory and Elizabeth Dole.

- Taylor Batten