Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Forget Michigan; next Tuesday is what matters

Much has been made, and rightly so, about what's at stake for Mitt Romney in Michigan today. Polls show a virtual tie there, and a loss in his native state would make the race truly competitive.

But regardless of what happens in Michigan today, the most important day of the presidential campaign so far is just one week from today. Eleven states will hold primaries and caucuses next Tuesday. There will be 466 delegates at stake, or more than double the number that have already been decided in the whole campaign to this point. Next Tuesday could crown a solid frontrunner, or scramble the race even further.

So let's look at those 11 states and who they support.

The 11, and the number of delegates at stake in each: Alaska (27), Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (41), North Dakota (28), Ohio (66), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58), Vermont (17), Virginia (49) and Wyoming (29).

Here's what the polls show in those states (according to realclearpolitics.com and other outlets):
Alaska: No favorite.
Georgia: Gingrich 32%; Santorum 25%; Romney 21%; Paul 9%
Idaho: No reliable polling; Paul won straw vote in early January
Massachusetts: Romney 64%; Santorum 16%; Paul 7%; Gingrich 6%
North Dakota: No favorite.
Ohio: Santorum 33%; Romney 26%; Gingrich 19%; Paul 11%
Oklahoma: Santorum 43%; Gingrich 22%; Romney 18%; Paul 7%
Tennessee: Santorum 38%; Romney 20%; Paul 15%; Gingrich 13%
Vermont: Romney 34%; Santorum 27%; Paul 14%; Gingrich 10%
Virginia: Romney 53%; Paul 23%
Wyoming: No favorite, though Santorum has won several informal county straw polls.

Polls can swing wildly and quickly, as we've seen. But at this moment in time, it's safe to say that no candidate has a firm hold on Super Tuesday. Gingrich could win Georgia and Romney has Massachusetts and Virginia locked up. But if Santorum holds on in Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee, this race will go well into April, at least.

-- Taylor Batten


Anonymous said...

Lets focus on Newt. He has some ggood ideas. I was shocked that Obama does not realize that gas prices fluctuate based on reactions to " plans" nations have. So if we have a plan to drill ( do not worry about time ) that plan in itself will generate positive speculation and send prices down. I voted for Obama but he has done nothing for me:
- cannot sell or buy a house
- cannot find a job
- high gas prices
- inflation

All the above happens when the administration wasted time in both houses about Obamacare - for what?